Who Won the Latinx Vote in 2024? It’s More Complicated Than That.
President-elect Donald Trump won 46 percent of the Latinx vote in the 2024 presidential election, according to NBC News exit polling—a dramatic uptick from 32 percent in 2020. Trump made notable gains among Latino voters in key swing states including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, particularly among younger men.
Many commentators have argued that these results suggest fundamentally shifting attitudes within a constituency that has previously voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. But the mainstream media and party institutions still struggle to understand “Latino” and “Latinx” political behaviors and voting patterns, in large part because it misrepresents Latinos as a monolithic voting bloc. This problem has persisted for decades.
The Latino population in the United States has seen remarkable growth over the past three decades, now comprising nearly 20 percent of the national population and making it the largest minority group. Thirty-two percent of Latinos are immigrants from Latin American countries. Mexican immigrants represent the largest group, but recent years have seen rising numbers from other countries, such as Venezuela, Guatemala, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic. About 44 percent of Latin American immigrants are now naturalized U.S. citizens, signaling the community’s increasing stability and integration into American society. Latino voter turnout in 2020 was around 53.7 percent, a significant increase from previous elections. For 2024, turnout is projected to be slightly higher, reflecting the growing political engagement within the community.
But Latino voters are not a homogenous group; a complex interplay of class, generational perspectives, gender, and specific community concerns influence their political engagement. What’s more, the population’s growth has led to tensions between different groups within the Latino community, as well as between U.S.-born Latinos, naturalized citizens, documented immigrants, and undocumented immigrants. These tensions stem from several factors, including fear mongering and targeted misinformation campaigns about immigration from Latin American countries, competition for jobs and resources, conflicting attitudes toward LGBTQ+ communities, and differing experiences and perspectives on racial identity and integration into American society.
Citizenship and perceptions of undocumented immigrants and immigration policies played a major role in how Latinos voted in 2024. During his first term, high-profile enforcement actions marked Trump’s immigration policies, including the separation of families at the border, imprisonment of undocumented immigrant children, and workplace raids, which disrupted the lives of immigrant workers and their families. He has now proposed a program to deport one million people per year by declaring a national emergency to use the military for mass deportations and utilizing expedited removal processes, as well as recruiting hundreds of new border agents, expanding the border wall, and building mass detainment facilities. These policies treat immigrants as threats rather than contributors to society, raising significant alarm within many Latino communities about what is coming next.
There are significant differences in support for these policies, however, when origin and heritage are taken into consideration. Cubans, for example, have traditionally been a strong base of support for the Republican Party and continued this trend in 2024, with 58 percent supporting Trump, followed by South Americans at 41 percent, Puerto Ricans at 37 percent, Central Americans at 36 percent, and Mexicans at 33 percent.
Class distinctions are also key to voting patterns among Latinos, and play a role in shaping political behaviors and alliances within the community. Many Latinos felt that Trump’s policy proposals would better address issues like inflation and job security. Working-class Latinos, who have been disproportionately affected by economic challenges like inflation, are increasingly focused on economic empowerment, including worksite collective actions, and local-level political movements.
In contrast, middle- and upper-class Latinos are influenced by their class and tax interests. While many working-class Latinos are pushing back against anti-labor policies such as right-to-work laws that they perceive as harmful to their social and economic interests, Latinos whose livelihoods depend on sectors like law enforcement, the national security state, and fossil fuel industries, as well as those who now belong to the middle or upper class, might support different policies, like tax cuts, that align with their class status and historical affinities toward U.S. conservatism.
Gender dynamics add another layer of complexity to Latino political engagement. While Latino men and Latina women both voted for Biden in 2020 by significant margins, Latino men swung toward Trump by 35 percentage points in 2024, meaning that unlike white and Black voters, Latinos broke toward different candidates based on gender. Latina women, in particular, have been at the forefront of advocating for social justice, healthcare access, educational opportunities, and reproductive rights. Their voting patterns often reflect a firm commitment to these issues, which can differ from the priorities of Latino men. For example, Latina women have shown higher levels of support for progressive candidates and policies that address gender equality, family welfare, and abortion rights.
Generational divides and the relative time from immigration have also become more pronounced. Younger Latinos are often more progressive, advocating for comprehensive immigration reform, climate action, social justice, and reproductive rights, while older generations may prioritize different issues based on their experiences and economic status.
It is also important to consider that a sizable portion of Latinos are not ideologically strident or swayed by either political party’s values. While in this election it looks like Latinos are turning right, many of these same voters, especially working-class Latinos in the Southwest, turned out en masse for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primaries because of his economic populist message. In that instance, and in 2024, overtures by Sanders and now Trump to acknowledge and validate the class and economic woes felt by Latinos—irrespective of actual intentions or plans to address them—seem to have resonated with these voters.
To accurately capture the political landscape, media coverage must evolve to reflect these complexities. By acknowledging and analyzing the diverse factors that influence Latino voting behavior—especially class divisions, generational differences, gender dynamics, the specific concerns of working-class Latinos, and the impact of anti-immigrant rhetoric—media outlets can provide more informed and comprehensive coverage. Understanding the role of class is crucial, as it shapes economic priorities, political alliances, and responses to policy changes within the Latino community. This deeper understanding is essential for grasping the future of our country’s demographic, cultural, and political evolution.